Incrementality Testing

Facebook

Informed Facebook Marketplace marketing budget and media mix decisions by quantifying the incremental value of Paid Search through testing and statistical analyses.

Scope

Measurement Consulting

Paid Digital Media

Opportunity

Paid Search Non-Brand Text was proving to be a very cost-efficient driver of quality offsite traffic to Facebook Marketplace. The Ovative and Facebook team saw this as an opportunity to validate the incremental value of this channel and ability to scale effectively.  Test results could be used to inform the budgeting and media mix decisions for the upcoming year.

impact

  • Incremental cost per conversion was 22% below target
  • Ability to scale investments to drive incremental 1.7M annual conversions while hitting cost per targets

Approach

1. Ovative and the Facebook team partnered with Google and leveraged their GeoX testing tool. It was critically important to test and quantify the incremental impact of SEM media at a 95% significance level in order to confidently report and socialize the test results across the Facebook organization. Ovative and the Facebook team partnered with Google and leveraged their GeoX testing tool which offers a Time Based Regression modeling approach. This methodology is highly precise, allowing us to successfully measure the impact of non-brand search on conversions despite Facebook’s large and volatile conversion base.

2. Scaled investment 6x in non-brand search. In addition to the hold-out test geo, we introduced a heavy-up test geo, where we scaled investment 6x in non-brand search. The intention was to better understand the incremental marginal return of the additional funding. The geo also gave a second opportunity to get an incrementality read on non-brand text and hit the level of statistical significance we were hoping for.

3. Test results indicated that non-brand text is driving statistically significant incremental conversions to Facebook Marketplace at baseline levels. Test results indicated that non-brand text is driving statistically significant incremental conversions to Facebook Marketplace at baseline levels. The test also quantified the opportunity to scale profitably based on the marginal incremental cost-per-conversion in the heavy-up test geo. The Marketplace team used these test results to more confidently determine their marketing budget and media mix for the upcoming year.

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Client Testimonials

“The successful results helped us realize what a critical partner we have in the Ovative Group. When we needed stability in our performance, they delivered a plan and brought it. When we’ve needed thought partners to work through the big visions we have for our own account, they’ve helped us understand what was possible both now and in the future. Most importantly, when we needed to deliver against one of our most important goals, the team stepped up to the challenge and helped us meet it head on.”

Deryck Boulanger

Manager, Decision Science at Facebook

“I was extremely impressed with Ovative’s ability to adopt and execute GeoX so quickly and flawlessly. Key to success was project ownership by Ovative and a deep understanding of FB Marketplace’s business, leading to customized proper set-up and progress tracking.”

Liza Rtishchev

Senior Analytical Consultant at Google

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