Tactics to Try: 2022 EMR Holiday Predictions

As dollars are tight this Holiday season, spending on tactics that drive your brand forward will be imperative. Using real Enterprise Marketing Return (EMR) data from our clients, we can predict which channels will win this Holiday!

Check out our predictions below, and contact us to learn more about planning for holiday.

Contact us to plan your holiday strategy!

Why EMR?

Marketers optimizing their media to the legacy metric of ROAS (Return on Ad Spend) are missing key opportunities to win as it only looks at online revenue as the metric for determining return.

This is why Ovative created EMR (Enterprise Marketing Return), a metric that holistically measures the impact of online and offline revenue, future customer value, incrementality, and profitability into a single metric of success. We use EMR every day to help our clients invest in the right tactics to grow their business. In this article, we’ll share our predictions for tactics we expect to be high-performing this holiday season based on their average EMR that you should be testing. We will also outline which tactics we expect marketers will overspend on because they are only looking at ROAS. Check out our predictions below and be ready for the holiday season

For more information to prepare for holiday, download the full Marketer’s Guide to Holiday 2022 here.

The Underdogs

Consider investing in these often underutilized, yet high-performing, channels. Because marketers often only use ROAS to gauge performance, they are missing the total value of these channels that we can recognize measuring to EMR.

  • TikTok

    TikTok seems to be on every marketer’s 2022 agenda. With explosive growth throughout the pandemic, users spend more time per day (average 46 minutes) on TikTok than any other channel.¹ Though user adoption is booming, the sophistication of ad serving is still within its infancy stage to drive immediate realized return. We anticipate TikTok will continue to see strong efficiency and EMR due to its strong Future Customer Value (FCR) or ability to attract customers with long-term value to the brand.
  • CTV: Connected TV (OTT)

    CTV has proven to be a great way to reach consumers who are cutting cords and moving into a digital space. 109 million US households will use a connected TV (CTV) this year, accounting for 83% of total households.² Publishers like Netflix and Disney are opening their ad-supported options in Q4 2022 or Q1 2023. Time spent with devices has returned to the same steady growth as before the pandemic, cementing consumer behavior of spending time with CTV. With more publishers offering ad-supported options, it’s more possible than ever to scale campaigns to large, relevant audiences due to the proliferation of content.
  • Streaming Audio

    Streaming Audio continues to make gains against terrestrial radio for time spent listening. Digital audio will account for over 12% of overall media time for US adults, with steady growth expected.³ This is driven largely by the subcategory of podcasts. US adult time spent with podcasts is expected to grow 15% this year.³ Podcasts will account for more than 25% of all digital audio revenues this year. Several major companies are building out huge podcast ad businesses (iHeartMedia, Spotify, Audacy, etc), making this tactic one to test into for your brand to understand the ability to reach your audiences where they are listening.⁴

The Overspenders

Be aware of these channels commonly overspent on by marketers because they rely on ROAS. Using EMR, we can understand the true value of these channels.

  • OOH

    While the world has opened back up and OOH is more prevalent in marketing plans now than two years ago, consumers are continuing the move to digital. Particularly for retail brands, consumers want to be able to click on a link and seamlessly purchase. While it is still beneficial to diversify your mix, there is an opportunity to pull back investment in OOH as the channel catches up to digital maturity.

Keep An Eye On

Be aware of key trends on Meta impacting audience size and efficiency.

  • Facebook is seeing usage plateau but will observe declines as older generations are losing interest and younger generations will not adopt as fast as users exit
  • Instagram will remain competitive in the marketplace, generating new users, and we expect EMR performance to increase. The platform capitalizes on the sophistication of its algorithm and it is highlighting short form user-generated video content more effectively than Facebook to compete with TikTok.

The result: break-even. Facebook’s usage decline and Instagram’s increase will cause an even loss/gain and keep Meta a platform to continue watching and investing on within your mix. However, within Meta we expect tactics will continue to vary in their EMR performance:.

  • Meta Upper Funnel

    Meta Upper Funnel will see decreased EMR Performance as its algorithm is inherently designed to reach the most users at the most efficient rate without understanding the future value of those users to the brand. As advertisers diversify spend, we expect this tactic will become more expensive and decrease EMR.
  • Meta Lower Funnel

    Meta Lower Funnel will hold strong EMR and remain at the top of the EMR Rankings due to its sophisticated algorithm and targeting, which enables it to drive realized returns.

Interested in reading more Ovative Insights on 2022 Holiday Planning?

Download the full Marketer’s Guide to Holiday 2022 here.

Ovative is a digital-first media and measurement firm seeking to transform the measure of marketing success. At Ovative, we help brands move the needle. We are curious. We value your brand. We want to see you succeed. Connect with us to learn more!

1 | US Social Media Usage 2022, eMarketer
2 | What’s the No. 1 CTV device in the US?, eMarketer
3 | Digital audio takes up an increasing share of US digital media time, eMarketer
4 | Podcasts will account for more than one-fourth of digital audio ad spending, eMarketer

Lillian Smith

Senior Analyst, Paid Social

About the Author

Lillian is a Senior Analyst on the Paid Social team at Ovative.

Dale Nitschke

Dale Nitschke

CEO & Founder

About the Author

Dale is the Founder and CEO of Ovative. After years of operating a large omni-channel business and leading a customer data initiative, Dale knew there was an opportunity to create a marketing firm that helped clients become more customer centric and drove better performance outcomes. A gap existed between business consultancies and advertising agencies that modern marketing approaches demand. He also believed that a strong, healthy culture could attract and develop smart, talented team members. In 2009, he formed Ovative to bring media, measurement, and consulting together under one roof to enable an enterprise approach that drives more revenue and grows clients’ customer base.

Prior to founding Ovative in 2009, Dale spent 23 years at Target Corporation where he served as President of Target.com and grew the ecommerce business from start-up stage to a $1 billion+ business and established the foundation of Target’s Guest database capabilities. Previously he served as SVP Merchandising at the Department Store Division of Dayton Hudson. Dale has advised retailers and brands globally on business, growth, marketing, and measurement transformation strategies.

Outside of Ovative, Dale is a leader on topics including business strategy, change management, and team leadership. He serves on the board of Allergy Amulet and on the Dean’s Advisory Board of the Wisconsin School of Business at UW-Madison.  He enjoys spending time with his family, up north in northern Wisconsin, playing golf, and cheering on Wisconsin sport teams.

Seth Brand

Senior Manager, Consulting

About the Author

Seth is a Senior Manager on the Consulting team at Ovative.

Amanda McCann

Senior Manager, Consulting

About the Author

Amanda is a Senior Manager on the Consulting team at Ovative, specializing in Retail Media Networks.

Jenny Reinke

Senior Analyst, Measurement Solutions

About the Author

Jenny is a Senior Analyst on the Measurement Solutions team at Ovative.

Annie Zipfel

Executive Vice President, Media

About the Author

Annie is the Executive Vice President of Media at Ovative. She oversees delivery and growth across paid and owned media (digital, traditional, and retail media) and creative services.

Annie has more than 30 years of experience in media, brand management, insights/analytics, marketing, and product. She has also developed large, high-performing teams and built new measurement capabilities. Annie led the marketing team at Andersen Windows & Doors, leading the digital, social, content, customer insights, and creative functions. Prior to that, Annie served in multiple marketing leadership roles at Starbucks, REI, Target, and General Mills, with a keen focus on brand, media, insights, analytics, and measurement.

Annie is an industry leader in brand management, customer insights, e-commerce, social media, and analytics. She enjoys hiking, traveling, cooking, fishing, and spending time with her sweet dog and two sons.

Bonnie Gross

Executive Vice President, Talent Services

About the Author

Bonnie is the Executive Vice President of Talent Services at Ovative. She is responsible for attracting and retaining top talent and creating a culture in which our team thrives personally and professionally. Under Bonnie’s leadership, Ovative has defined an industry leading leadership and development program and transformed our approach to talent recruitment with a focus on diversity, equality and inclusion. Prior to her current role, Bonnie led Ovative’s Client and Business Development team overseeing client satisfaction and new growth opportunities.

Before joining Ovative in 2014, Bonnie spent 13 years at Target Corporate as the VP of digital and Digital Marketing where she led the launch of Cartwheel, an industry-leading social shopping application. Bonnie was the VP of Marketing for Fingerhut for 15 years prior to joining Target.

Leander Cohen

Analyst, Consulting

About the Author

Leander Cohen is an Analyst on the Consulting team at Ovative.

Will Silva

Analyst, Measurement Solutions

About the Author

Will is an Analyst on the Measurement Solutions team at Ovative.

Sarah Chang

Sarah Chang

Analyst, Consulting

About the Author

Sarah Chang is an Analyst on the Consulting team at Ovative.

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