Measurement Insights

Incrementality and the Influence on Path to Purchase

You start your morning by checking email on your phone, one of which is from your favorite place to shop for shoes. Then, while scrolling through Instagram on your bus ride to work, you notice the same pair of shoes being promoted in your feed. Over lunch, you open up Facebook on your laptop and the shoes that initially caught your eye are there again. This time, you click on the ad, purchase the shoes online and decide to pick them up later that evening.

As consumers, we enjoy the convenience of connected experiences across devices and locations. As marketers, we are challenged with organizing our media channel teams in a way that aligns with a consumer’s cross-channel journey. As businesses, we aspire to understand which parts of the consumer experience are generating a positive return on investment.

As we assess our media investments throughout the consumer journey, one of the biggest challenges is choosing the most effective measurement solution. A frequently used solution, attribution, estimates a granular amount of credit to give a digital touch point on a consumer’s path to conversion. Within this, there are different kinds of attribution models you can use: first touch, last click, U-shaped, algorithmic and more.

At Ovative/group, we look beyond attribution and measure causal impact to understand if an individual touchpoint could make or break the purchase as a consumer works their way through the buying process. This idea is commonly referred to as incrementality. Here’s an example of where incrementality might come into play …

A brand is deciding whether or not to spend money on branded keyword paid search terms.
The question they would want to be able to answer is: If we didn’t have paid placement for our branded keywords, would consumers still click through to our website and purchase?

Your first thought might be, “But my attribution technology is telling me the return on ad spend for brand search is really high. Why would we consider turning that spend off?” While attribution is a vital tool, it is not – like many other forms of measurement – going to help you answer the question, “If that one touchpoint was taken away, would that person still have converted?”

In order to answer this question, Ovative often employs an unified marketing analytics (UMA) model that incorporates the results from controlled incrementality testing. Controlled testing means changing a single variable, under isolated circumstances, to determine whether that factor truly impacted sales and on what level.

For example, in a specific geographic area, you could turn off your paid search branded keywords on mobile, but leave them on for desktop. The results of this change are then compared against a test group with a similar market in which everything has remained consistent.

Whether the impact is negative or positive, incrementality testing allows you to determine the influence of what a single variable, or set of variables, did on someone’s path to purchase.

Based on our incrementality testing at Ovative, we have experienced branded paid search revenue to be between 0% to 65%+ incremental. The results that we have observed across different client profiles vary based on numerous factors including things like competition, device and seasonality. In some cases, we’ve seen opportunities to save, or re-invest, up to $3MM from branded keyword incrementality testing alone. In other cases we have observed some channels being undervalued by up to 30% even when using an algorithmic attribution model.

By incorporating incrementality testing, marketers can confidently take action on their attributed metrics while validating results and adjusting benchmarks through controlled tests.

There are always going to be gaps in data that prevent us from calculating a perfect return on the marketing investments we make. Whether it’s because of emerging touchpoints, siloed data, or security policies, understanding your customers’ entire path to purchase – and the impact of your marketing on it – should be an ongoing exercise for brands.

Ovative is a digital-first media and measurement firm seeking to transform the measure of marketing success. At Ovative, we help brands move the needle. We are curious. We value your brand. We want to see you succeed. Connect with us to learn more!


Lillian Smith

Senior Analyst, Paid Social

About the Author

Lillian is a Senior Analyst on the Paid Social team at Ovative.

Dale Nitschke

Dale Nitschke

CEO & Founder

About the Author

Dale is the Founder and CEO of Ovative. After years of operating a large omni-channel business and leading a customer data initiative, Dale knew there was an opportunity to create a marketing firm that helped clients become more customer centric and drove better performance outcomes. A gap existed between business consultancies and advertising agencies that modern marketing approaches demand. He also believed that a strong, healthy culture could attract and develop smart, talented team members. In 2009, he formed Ovative to bring media, measurement, and consulting together under one roof to enable an enterprise approach that drives more revenue and grows clients’ customer base.

Prior to founding Ovative in 2009, Dale spent 23 years at Target Corporation where he served as President of Target.com and grew the ecommerce business from start-up stage to a $1 billion+ business and established the foundation of Target’s Guest database capabilities. Previously he served as SVP Merchandising at the Department Store Division of Dayton Hudson. Dale has advised retailers and brands globally on business, growth, marketing, and measurement transformation strategies.

Outside of Ovative, Dale is a leader on topics including business strategy, change management, and team leadership. He serves on the board of Allergy Amulet and on the Dean’s Advisory Board of the Wisconsin School of Business at UW-Madison.  He enjoys spending time with his family, up north in northern Wisconsin, playing golf, and cheering on Wisconsin sport teams.

Seth Brand

Senior Manager, Consulting

About the Author

Seth is a Senior Manager on the Consulting team at Ovative.

Amanda McCann

Senior Manager, Consulting

About the Author

Amanda is a Senior Manager on the Consulting team at Ovative, specializing in Retail Media Networks.

Jenny Reinke

Senior Analyst, Measurement Solutions

About the Author

Jenny is a Senior Analyst on the Measurement Solutions team at Ovative.

Annie Zipfel

Executive Vice President, Media

About the Author

Annie is the Executive Vice President of Media at Ovative. She oversees delivery and growth across paid and owned media (digital, traditional, and retail media) and creative services.

Annie has more than 30 years of experience in media, brand management, insights/analytics, marketing, and product. She has also developed large, high-performing teams and built new measurement capabilities. Annie led the marketing team at Andersen Windows & Doors, leading the digital, social, content, customer insights, and creative functions. Prior to that, Annie served in multiple marketing leadership roles at Starbucks, REI, Target, and General Mills, with a keen focus on brand, media, insights, analytics, and measurement.

Annie is an industry leader in brand management, customer insights, e-commerce, social media, and analytics. She enjoys hiking, traveling, cooking, fishing, and spending time with her sweet dog and two sons.

Bonnie Gross

Executive Vice President, Talent Services

About the Author

Bonnie is the Executive Vice President of Talent Services at Ovative. She is responsible for attracting and retaining top talent and creating a culture in which our team thrives personally and professionally. Under Bonnie’s leadership, Ovative has defined an industry leading leadership and development program and transformed our approach to talent recruitment with a focus on diversity, equality and inclusion. Prior to her current role, Bonnie led Ovative’s Client and Business Development team overseeing client satisfaction and new growth opportunities.

Before joining Ovative in 2014, Bonnie spent 13 years at Target Corporate as the VP of digital and Digital Marketing where she led the launch of Cartwheel, an industry-leading social shopping application. Bonnie was the VP of Marketing for Fingerhut for 15 years prior to joining Target.

Leander Cohen

Analyst, Consulting

About the Author

Leander Cohen is an Analyst on the Consulting team at Ovative.

Will Silva

Analyst, Measurement Solutions

About the Author

Will is an Analyst on the Measurement Solutions team at Ovative.

Sarah Chang

Sarah Chang

Analyst, Consulting

About the Author

Sarah Chang is an Analyst on the Consulting team at Ovative.

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