Cross-Channel Integrated Planning

Ovative Trends and Performance Update: August 2021 

The holiday season is nearly here, and marketers are being faced with a number of challenges as they plan for this important time. With persisting supply chain delays and a new wave of Delta variant cases, marketers need tplan ahead and pivot quickly to win holiday. Read on for Ovative’s take on how to prepare. 

August Macro Trends  

  • Consumer confidence sank to a 6-month low, signaling that economic recovery has more headwinds as we head into fall. In addition, consumer sentiment, which measures consumers perceptions of their personal circumstances, came in 13% below expectations – providing the lowest read since 2011.¹ 
  • Continued supply chain issues will result in higher prices and fewer choices for consumers this holiday season. Delta variant cases are increasing in southeast Asia, the heart of retail manufacturing, leading to factory closures the need to outsource production. Delays across the entire supply chain are pushing retailers to increase prices to compensate for increased freight and production costs.² 
  • Retailers are focused on inventory: less is now more. Supply chain issues and uncertainty in the economy have led retailers to offer fewer end-of season markdowns to capitalize on demand with lower inventory levels. In-turn, margin rates have been improving.³ 

What Trends Did We Observe Across Ovative Clients Last Month? 

  • Retailers are continuing to face supply chain challenges as the holiday season approaches and many clients are starting to think about reducing promotional messages or minimizing presence of promos in market given a possible shortage of inventory. Retail trends suggest clients should consider capitalizing on opportunities to secure higher margin rates by reducing end-of-season sales to help with strains the supply chain is causing.  
  • Clients are observing softness in store traffic as the covid 19 climate, recently fueled by the delta variant, continues to evolve and impact consumer behavior. So far, no meaningful changes to online shopping have been observed, but as consumer confidence declines headed into the fall shopping season, we could begin to feel consumers tightening their pocket-books and reducing shopping overall. 

What Trends Did We Observe on Google and Facebook Last Month? 

  • Clients have started to launch media campaigns highlighting a seasonal shift with a focus on back to school, fall fashion and hybrid back to work settings.  
  • We are observing increased competition in the marketplace driving costs up and, in some instances, CVR down. Performance of these campaigns will likely be an indicator of consumer demand as we approach the holiday season. 
  • Increased costs and lowered conversion rates across Google were seen YoY. However, concern levels should remain low as increases in spend and impressions were the main drivers. 

Ovative Cross Client Insights Data, August 2021 

How Can You Turn These Insights Into Action?  

Promotional flexibility will be key. As marketers combat decreased consumer confidence and supply chain delays, they need to incentivize shopping while staying on top of inventory shortages. Marketers should consider running flash sales or shorter promos to boost holiday sales performance and create a sense of urgency around limited product availability. Planning for and quickly reacting to supply chain disruptions throughout holiday and into 2022 will be critical for success across all industries 

Adjust messaging to match changing consumer behavior. Monitor trends throughout the season to find whether consumers are favoring online shopping, or whether they are heading back into stores, so that you can adjust your brand’s messaging to your customers’ preferences. 

Carefully consider which products to include in sales or markdowns. Exclude products that have lower inventory levels, and capitalize on increases in margin while preparing for longer-term impacts to your business. 

As you continue holiday preparations for your brand, continue to monitor trends, and use these tips to plan around changing consumer confidence and supply chain delays. 

Ovative is a digital-first media and measurement firm seeking to transform the measure of marketing success. At Ovative, we help brands move the needle. We are curious. We value your brand. We want to see you succeed. Connect with us to learn more! 


SOURCES

1 | Consumer Confidence Index, August 2021 

2 | CNN, The shipping crisis is getting worse. Here’s what that means for holiday shopping, August 2021 

3 | WSJ, Clothing Retailers Boost Profit Margins by Offering Fewer Markdowns 

4 | Ovative Group, Cross Client Insights Data, August 2021  


Lillian Smith

Senior Analyst, Paid Social

About the Author

Lillian is a Senior Analyst on the Paid Social team at Ovative.

Dale Nitschke

Dale Nitschke

CEO & Founder

About the Author

Dale is the Founder and CEO of Ovative. After years of operating a large omni-channel business and leading a customer data initiative, Dale knew there was an opportunity to create a marketing firm that helped clients become more customer centric and drove better performance outcomes. A gap existed between business consultancies and advertising agencies that modern marketing approaches demand. He also believed that a strong, healthy culture could attract and develop smart, talented team members. In 2009, he formed Ovative to bring media, measurement, and consulting together under one roof to enable an enterprise approach that drives more revenue and grows clients’ customer base.

Prior to founding Ovative in 2009, Dale spent 23 years at Target Corporation where he served as President of Target.com and grew the ecommerce business from start-up stage to a $1 billion+ business and established the foundation of Target’s Guest database capabilities. Previously he served as SVP Merchandising at the Department Store Division of Dayton Hudson. Dale has advised retailers and brands globally on business, growth, marketing, and measurement transformation strategies.

Outside of Ovative, Dale is a leader on topics including business strategy, change management, and team leadership. He serves on the board of Allergy Amulet and on the Dean’s Advisory Board of the Wisconsin School of Business at UW-Madison.  He enjoys spending time with his family, up north in northern Wisconsin, playing golf, and cheering on Wisconsin sport teams.

Seth Brand

Senior Manager, Consulting

About the Author

Seth is a Senior Manager on the Consulting team at Ovative.

Amanda McCann

Senior Manager, Consulting

About the Author

Amanda is a Senior Manager on the Consulting team at Ovative, specializing in Retail Media Networks.

Jenny Reinke

Senior Analyst, Measurement Solutions

About the Author

Jenny is a Senior Analyst on the Measurement Solutions team at Ovative.

Annie Zipfel

Executive Vice President, Media

About the Author

Annie is the Executive Vice President of Media at Ovative. She oversees delivery and growth across paid and owned media (digital, traditional, and retail media) and creative services.

Annie has more than 30 years of experience in media, brand management, insights/analytics, marketing, and product. She has also developed large, high-performing teams and built new measurement capabilities. Annie led the marketing team at Andersen Windows & Doors, leading the digital, social, content, customer insights, and creative functions. Prior to that, Annie served in multiple marketing leadership roles at Starbucks, REI, Target, and General Mills, with a keen focus on brand, media, insights, analytics, and measurement.

Annie is an industry leader in brand management, customer insights, e-commerce, social media, and analytics. She enjoys hiking, traveling, cooking, fishing, and spending time with her sweet dog and two sons.

Bonnie Gross

Executive Vice President, Talent Services

About the Author

Bonnie is the Executive Vice President of Talent Services at Ovative. She is responsible for attracting and retaining top talent and creating a culture in which our team thrives personally and professionally. Under Bonnie’s leadership, Ovative has defined an industry leading leadership and development program and transformed our approach to talent recruitment with a focus on diversity, equality and inclusion. Prior to her current role, Bonnie led Ovative’s Client and Business Development team overseeing client satisfaction and new growth opportunities.

Before joining Ovative in 2014, Bonnie spent 13 years at Target Corporate as the VP of digital and Digital Marketing where she led the launch of Cartwheel, an industry-leading social shopping application. Bonnie was the VP of Marketing for Fingerhut for 15 years prior to joining Target.

Leander Cohen

Analyst, Consulting

About the Author

Leander Cohen is an Analyst on the Consulting team at Ovative.

Will Silva

Analyst, Measurement Solutions

About the Author

Will is an Analyst on the Measurement Solutions team at Ovative.

Sarah Chang

Sarah Chang

Analyst, Consulting

About the Author

Sarah Chang is an Analyst on the Consulting team at Ovative.

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